U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) announced on Aug. 13 that it was undertaking a strategic review to maximize shareholder value. Once the country’s largest steelmaker, it was removed as a constituent of S&P 500 stocks in June 2014.
The company now faces several hostile bidders. The review gives its management and board time to develop potential alternatives.
Sometimes, S&P companies are forced to sell by activist investors. Other times, they sell to join a more substantial entity; other times, the board decides the price is right.
Wall Street often views strategic review announcements as code for, “We are putting our business up for sale. Please get in line.”
Who are the S&P 500 companies that should put themselves up for sale? I’ve come up with a trio that includes a mega-cap (market capitalization of $200 billion or more), large-cap ($10 billion to $200 billion) and mid-cap ($2 billion to $10 billion).
Here are my three candidates.
McDonald’s (MCD)
McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) makes the jumbo-cap group with a market cap of $206 billion. It’s trading within 5% of its all-time high of $299.35, which it hit in late June. It’s firing on all cylinders.
Why would it sell? Well, given it has no large shareholders other than Vanguard and BlackRock, it probably wouldn’t.
However, its shares haven’t exactly lit it up in recent years — shares are up 7.4% year-to-date (YTD), nearly 12% over the past year and 75% over the past five years — badly trailing Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), which it used to control (90% stake) until it sold in 2006, suggesting it was a distraction from the main business.
I can’t imagine what McDonald’s would be worth today if it owned both brands. Mind-blowing.
The thing is, anyone in good enough financial shape to be able to buy the Golden Arches would undoubtedly pay a pretty premium to own America’s most iconic restaurant brand. I like the idea of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B)/(NYSE:BRK.A) buying McDonald’s so Warren Buffett can go to his favorite restaurant for free.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Buffett doing a deal this big before he passes. It wouldn’t be fair to his successor, Greg Abel.
But let’s assume the buyer pays a 50% premium to acquire McD’s. At current prices, that’s $426. That changes its five-year return to 163%, a far more palatable return for all shareholders.
3M (MMM)
3M (NYSE:MMM) stock is down YTD, over the past 52 weeks and five years. The last time it traded this low was March 2013.
There are about 18.5 billion reasons MMM stock has been dead money for so long: It has been up to its eyeballs in legal trouble. The company’s most recent settlement was for $6 billion. That was a lawsuit with more than 260,000 veterans claiming 3M’s earplugs caused hearing loss. MMM will make cash payments of $5 billion between 2023 and 2029 and issue $1 billion in stock.
In another suit, the company could pay as much as $12.5 billion to those claiming its chemicals contaminated public drinking water. It all adds up. The settlement on the earplugs comes with a pre-tax charge of $4.2 billion in Q3 2023.
I’m not suggesting anyone would want to touch this legal mess. However, it was once valued at 2.5x its $59 billion market cap. 3M could now be had for much less.
DaVita (DVA)
Getting back to Warren Buffett, Berkshire is the largest shareholder of DaVita (NYSE:DVA), controlling 34% of its stock. Its share price has been everywhere in the past five years.
The fact that Berkshire hasn’t added to its stake — its drop from 38.57 million shares in 2015 to 36.10 million in 2023 — says that is rather unlikely.
However, given Buffett’s loyalty, it would be nice if the company was able to find a willing buyer willing to pay a hefty enough premium to get Berkshire to vote its hefty stake.
Like the share price, DaVita’s business results have been quite sporadic.
In Q2 2023, its revenues were $3.0 billion, 2.5% higher than Q2 2022, while its adjusted operating income was $432 million, 22.7% higher than a year earlier, with a 220 basis-point increase in its operating margin.
If you look at its results for the first half of 2023, all of the numbers mentioned above are either slightly up or down for the six months. A significant positive: Its free cash flow in the 12 months through June is $1.1 billion, 23% higher than a year ago.
Based on an enterprise value of $20.5 billion, its free cash flow yield is 4.87%. Anything between 4% and 8% is fair value.
It might not be a free cash flow gusher, but it generates enough to keep Buffett holding. Somebody with deep pockets ought to find DaVita attractive. Perhaps it could separate the real estate from the operations.
That’s a thought for another day.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
