The management at China-based EV maker Nio (NYSE:NIO) faces a twofold challenge. First, persistent unprofitability and sales growth challenges needs to be solved. Second, and related to the first challenge, Nio’s management needs to win back the market’s past high enthusiasm for NIO stock.
Shares have experienced more modest price declines this year compared to 2022. However, much like with profitability and growth, investor sentiment is trending in the wrong direction. This needs to be corrected, and fast.
Taking this into account, it’s not a mystery as to why the company seems to be pulling all the stops lately to fast-track a turnaround (more below). Yet while Nio’s top brass may be giving 110% to fix the issues hurting both the company and the stock, should you count on a big payoff for these efforts?
Not so fast, as I’ll explain below.
NIO Stock, its Big Problems, and its Planned Big Solutions
In its latest monthly deliveries report, Nio talked up a big game, touting 12.6% year-over-year deliveries growth for November, as well as stating that year-to-date sales were up 33.1% compared to January-November 2022. At first glance, these numbers seem reliable.
However, as MarketWatch reported that same day, these figures represented an underperformance compared to the company’s main China-based peers. The same “sounds good only on the surface” dynamic can also be said to apply with Nio’s latest quarterly results, which came out on Dec. 5.
Although results came in ahead of expectations, and NIO stock briefly surged following the release, the market quickly wised up. Adjusted net losses for the quarter ($542 million) were less than expected, but only slightly (forecasts called for adjusted net losses of $600 million).
Vehicle margins for Q3 2023 (11%) were much better than margins reported in Q2 (6.2%). They were still down on a year-over-year basis.
In short, the big same problems that have kept knocking NIO lower (underwhelming growth, heavy losses) have not gone away. Again, the company has big solutions in the works, yet these hardly guarantee a massive comeback lies ahead.
Why Layoffs and a Spinoff May Not Save the Day
Alongside the release of the latest deliveries and financial data, there’s been quite a bit of news lately with NIO stock regarding the company’s turnaround plans. First, after announcing last month plans to lay off 10% of its workforce, there are rumors that Nio is considering another round of layoffs.
Second, as Reuters reported in a Dec. 6 exclusive, the company may be pursuing another actions in its efforts to become profitable: spin off its battery segment. Nio refused to address the spin-off rumors, but this plan, along with past and potential layoffs, may reduce cash burn. Or will it?
Although cost cutting may enable Nio to report “less bad” results in subsequent quarters, don’t assume that these cuts mean a quick trip to profitability. Nio has previously noted that its cost reduction efforts could save it around 2 billion yuan next year. That’s around $280.4 million.
While nothing to sneeze at, such cost savings are well below the aforementioned big losses from last quarter alone. If that’s not bad enough, these aggressive cost-cutting measures may also worsen its competitive disadvantage.
The Verdict: Investor Patience Wears Thin
Failing to plan is planning to fail, the saying goes, but just because Nio has formulated a turnaround plan doesn’t mean success will be a cinch. High competition in the Chinese EV space could continue to make it difficult for Nio to re-accelerate growth, as I have argued previously.
In fact, Nio’s possible pivot from free-spending to penny-pinching could make matters worse. While perhaps intending to cut the fat out of its operating expenses, it may be cutting bone and vital organs instead. Larger, better capitalized rivals could gain a greater edge.
At the same time Nio’s turnaround appears very questionable, the patience of investors keeps wearing thin. Sentiment for EV stocks across the board keeps turning bearish, as headwinds for the industry intensify globally.
With this, the verdict remains clear: continue to avoid NIO stock.
NIO stock earns a D rating in Portfolio Grader.
On the date of publication, neither Louis Navellier nor the InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article held (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
