Over the past twelve months, shares in Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) have more than tripled in price. After such outsized performance, the question now is what lies ahead for META stock over the next twelve months.
Another tripling-in-price for the Facebook and Instagram parent’s shares may be a tall order. After all, as Louis Navellier and the InvestorPlace Research Staff pointed out earlier this month, several “one and done” events contributed to this massive run-up.
Examples of “one and done” events for Meta include the beginning of the digital ad market recovery, the impact of reduced operating costs following several rounds of layoffs, plus the improvement to sentiment caused by Meta’s backing off of its big bet on the metaverse.
Taking three factors into account, there is likely a path for META to once again deliver strong returns during 2024.
META Stock and the Threefold Bull Case
The bull case for Meta Platforms stock and its 2024 outlook is threefold. First, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in a big way during 2024, this will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the market.
META stock is no exception. Yes, shares have experienced a tremendous amount of multiple expansion over the past year. Late last year, META was in value stock territory, but now trades for over 24.5 times earnings. Still, lower interest rates could provide an incremental boost to valuation.
Meta Platforms’ AI progress could drive multiple expansion. AI has played a role in this year’s rally. The market may reward the stock with a valuation comparable to the “Magnificent Seven” AI-focused stocks if further progress is made in developing and monetizing AI applications. Each of these stocks has a forward multiple of at least 30.
To top it all off, there’s another factor that stands to help move the needle for META. That would be earnings growth. Sell-side forecasts call for earnings growth of around 21% next year.
A Favorable Risk/Return Proposition
There is no certainty that these three factors will enable META stock to continue trending higher in the coming year. While commentary from the Federal Reserve strongly suggests that a “pivot” is in the cards, it’s possible that Wall Street is overestimating how quickly rates will come back down.
Any deviation from the market’s current forecast may drive additional rounds of volatility for the market, and just as favorable rate changes could have an outsized positive impact on META, expect the opposite if 2024 rate cuts fall short.
After this year’s success using AI to enhance the monetization of its social media properties, next year may not necessarily bring another AI-powered breakthrough.
Despite potential negative effects from interest rates and AI-related letdowns, META’s reasonable valuation and the rebounding digital ad market offer a counterbalance. Despite the moderate downside, the best case scenario offers significant potential upside.
So, how much possible upside is there? Taking into account earnings growth and possible re-rating of shares, there is strong potential for the stock to deliver gains in the moderate-to-high double-digit range during 2024.
Bottom Line: There’s Much Reason to Stay Bullish
Wall Street consensus calls for Meta Platforms to report earnings of $17.39 per share next year. The top end of estimates call for earnings of $19.77 per share. If the stock merely maintains its current multiple, earnings in this range could drive a move towards $425, $450, or even above $475 per share.
If the market decides that multiple expansion is justified, META could zoom to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30, maybe even more. A re-rating to a 30x forward multiple would likely be enough to send the stock to prices north of $500 per share. A move towards $600 per share may not be out of the question, either.
Bottom line: there’s much reason to stay bullish on META stock. That means keep holding on if you own it. If you’ve yet to buy, consider doing so.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
