I’m just going to give it to you straight – many cryptos are printing or have printed overheated technical metrics. Based on historical trends, a slowdown wouldn’t be the most shocking development to materialize. However, any lull that occurs may be a buying opportunity.
From a psychological standpoint, my main argument for continued upside in cryptos centers on positive tension. Frankly, the possibility of major virtual currencies recording all-time highs is palpable. It’s just right there. So, a sentiment exists that we shouldn’t just aim for reaching the championship game. We might as well win the whole shebang.
Second, the benchmark cryptocurrency will soon encounter what’s known as the halving. To make a long story short, the halving cycle makes mining said crypto more difficult because it reduces the amount of blockchain reward tokens generated from the transactional verification process. In turn, the increased difficulty reduces available supply relative to the underlying demand profile.
Here, the halving event represents a known catalyst. Still, cryptos could rise under the theory of buy the rumor, sell the news. Therefore, any dips in these decentralized digital assets could be temporary.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD)
Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) gained about 4%, putting the benchmark crypto just underneath the $52,000 level as of early Tuesday morning. As I write these words, the bulls and bears are vigorously fighting over the psychological threshold. Indeed, 52K represents a critical line in the sand. If the bulls establish a support line there, it probably won’t take long for fresh price records to be established.
Still, because the level is so important, the optimists shouldn’t expect a smooth ride. I also say that because Bitcoin is technically overheated. Right now, its relative strength indicator (RSI) stands at just over 76 points. Usually, an overcooked RSI eventually leads to a slowdown in momentum. Also, volume isn’t confirming the recent upswing in BTC this month.
Nevertheless, if a correction materializes, investors may want to consider adding to their position. Again, we’re just so close to setting new records. With more people aware of cryptos and institutional money flowing in, I’d say the chances of witnessing robust positively are quite good. Keep Bitcoin on your watch list.
Ethereum (ETH-USD)
Another digital asset that’s flirting with robust upside potential is Ethereum (ETH-USD). Over the trailing week, ETH gained over 10% of market value. Like Bitcoin, the ETH bulls are fighting with the bears over the front line symbolized by the 3K level. It’s oh so close to the milestone, just off by about $75 at time of writing.
Still, patient investors may want to keep the powder keg at least partially dry. Right now, Ethereum’s RSI clocks in at 77.36, which is overheated. The last two times ETH printed an overbought RSI signal was in November and December of last year. Coincidentally, shortly after both metrics flashed red, the price action faded.
Another source of caution focuses on volume: it’s just not confirming the recent rally that began early this month. So, a correction wouldn’t be out of the ordinary. I’d be more surprised if one didn’t materialize. Depending on how bad the ugliness is, ETH could fall to around $2,400.
Still, that would be a dream for the contrarian. With so much positive tension in cryptos, I’d be looking to buy the dips.
Tether (USDT-USD)
Unlike most other cryptos, Tether (USDT-USD) is a stablecoin. Typically, people don’t wager on its forward trajectory. Rather, USDT primarily provides conveniences for virtual currency investors by offering wealth based on crypto units. This way, investors don’t need to undergo the cumbersome fiat-to-crypto conversion, especially when opportunity strikes. Instead, they’re ready to rock and roll.
However, the pegging of USDT to the dollar doesn’t mean it can’t provide useful analyses. Part of the reason why I suspect that a correction may materialize in cryptos is that Tether has fallen conspicuously from its dollar peg. As I write this, one USDT is equivalent to 0.9994 dollars. And over the past seven days, Tether has spent roughly a third of the time below the one-to-one ratio.
Stated differently, a dollar is worth more than its equivalent unit in USDT tokens. That’s not meant to panic anyone but rather state that the cryptocurrency rally may be tired. In fact, TipRanks reports that the on-chain signal for Tether is “mostly bearish.” It’s just something to think about.
Solana (SOL-USD)
One of the hottest cryptos in town, Solana (SOL-USD) has been absolutely astonishing. Heading into the October – excuse me, Uptober – cycle, Solana showed few signs of life. Suddenly, around the middle of the Halloween month, the blockchain asset skyrocketed. Those who missed the boat on SOL were, well, “SOL,” if you know what I mean.
Well, if you rued the missed opportunity, you might have an opportunity to buy at a discount. Granted, it’s not an Uptober-style discount. However, a correction could be coming if history is any guide. Not too long ago, SOL printed a slightly overheated metric in its RSI indicator. Previously, this metric ran hot in December, leading to softness until the second half of January.
Another element that makes me suspect a correction may occur is the price-action-and-volume mismatch. Since rebounding in the back half of last month, SOL marched up into triple-digit territory. However, during this time, acquisition volume began fading. Normally, you want to see volume confirm the rally.
Still, given the broad interest in cryptos, I think any correction is temporary. Put Solana on your watch list.
XRP (XRP-USD)
Last week, I took a keen interest in XRP (XRP-USD). At the time, I mentioned that the popular but controversial crypto asset had trouble moving toward its 50-day moving average, which back then stood at 56 cents. Because XRP was struggling uncharacteristically, I issued a warning: the asset had robust upside potential but also incurred significant downside risks.
On that note, I’m happy to say that XRP bulls got the hint. They moved the price above the 50 DMA, which now sits at 55 cents. Also, the optimists are waging one heck of a war with the bears to secure the 57-cent level. That’s where the 200 DMA currently stands. Obviously, this is a key psychological area of resistance. If the bulls can break through here, then a move toward 63 cents isn’t unreasonable.
Another reason why I want the XRP army to secure 63 cents soon is that it would put the long-term trendline of rising lows intact. Granted, the early 2024 lull would put a noticeable wart on the trendline. Still, I’ll take some ugly aesthetics for upside profitability any day.
Cardano (ADA-USD)
Another crypto coin that may be looking at a near-term correction is Cardano (ADA-USD). Right now, its RSI poked its head right above the 70-point level. That’s the threshold for when a security or asset reaches into overbought territory. Previously, ADA became heavily overbought in December. Subsequently, after exhausting the bulls, the bears sunk the price down to around 46 cents.
From there, ADA popped up again, thus leading to the aforementioned elevated RSI print. Another element that’s distracting – and not necessarily in a good way – is that acquisition volume is very low compared to what we saw in December. With accelerated interest in cryptos across the board, you’d like to see future rallies generate even more volume.
You’re not seeing that now – quite the opposite. Thus, the bulls may be getting tired again.
Looking at Cardano’s point-and-figure (P&F) chart, it’s possible for the decentralized asset to fall to around 50 cents without incurring serious technical damage. However, you’d like to see the 45-cent level hold. If so, buying any upcoming dips would probably not be a bad idea.
Chainlink (LINK-USD)
A cryptocurrency with which I’ve had an on-again, off-again relationship – this time, I’m on – Chainlink (LINK-USD) is awfully compelling. Currently, it’s one of the not-so-solid performers, losing about 2% of market value in the past one-week period. And this laggard price action is a recent development. Still, with other cryptos recording solid gains, LINK presents a tempting opportunity.
A few sessions ago, the virtual currency’s RSI pinged slightly into overbought territory. Apparently, that was enough for some of the bulls to unwind their exposure. Previously, LINK pushed deep into overbought territory following the Uptober seasonality cycle. However, that incident didn’t quite lead to a correction but more of a sideways consolidation.
Nevertheless, with volume levels fading conspicuously throughout February, I wouldn’t be surprised to see LINK lose some of its shine. If a sizable correction does occur, I’m looking at around $16 as a possible downside target.
However, here’s the bottom line: if we get that price, I’d be really tempted to build my position. Chainlink has demonstrated strong support between the $14 and $15 levels.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto held a LONG position in BTC, ETH, USDT, XRP and LINK. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
