It’s no secret that the Magnificent 7 stocks have performed exceptionally well throughout 2023 and into 2024. In this article we’re going to look at the best case scenarios for those equities. Before getting into those best case scenarios let’s take a look at just how important they’ve become.
In 2023 The Magnificent 7 pulled the S&P 500 up by 24%. One tripled in value, another doubled, and the worst performers grew by nearly 60%. Their collective 106% return was phenomenal. It was so impressive that one head of research dubbed the remaining stocks within the S&P 500 the ‘Meager 493’ noting their relative lack of contribution.
That strong performance begs a question: just how much higher can the Magnificent 7 rise? No one knows exactly how high but it’s certain that artificial intelligence (AI) will be the defining factor
Magnificent 7 Stocks: Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL)
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) trudged through 2023 always a step behind the other stocks within the Magnificent 7. Microsoft charged out of the gate with its strong investments in OpenAI and ChatGPT integration into its Bing search tool.
Alphabet seemed to be caught flat footed in that regard. It’s been playing catch up ever since. Alphabet released its chatbot, Bard, which it later renamed Gemini. The service wasn’t particularly well regarded and its Large Language Model (LLM) has been updated twice. That’s a 10,000 foot view of Alphabet’s position today.
Fundamentally, the company represents a mixed bag. Sales have grown for four straight quarters with revenues increasing by 13% in the most recent quarter. That’s a strong signal to the markets. However, the $65.5 billion in ad revenues during the most recent quarter fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
Analysts believe Alphabet can run 20% higher in 2024. In order for that best case scenario to materialize Google will have to improve the perception of its AI prowess.
Apple (AAPL)
Make no mistake about it, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock is full of potential in 2024. Current estimates suggest that Apple can return 50% this year. Like all other shares discussed here, AI will be fundamental to its success.
That said, Apple is currently facing more trouble than it has at any point in the recent past. In 2024 the stock has already faced multiple negative revisions that have knocked $25 off its share price since late January. Those negative revisions have resulted in what is known as compression whereby ratios and multiples shrink. As bad as that sounds, there are reasons for bullishness moving forward.
iPhone sales are integral to the success of Apple. Apple will update its operating system to iOS 18 later this year. It is expected to be full of AI updates that could spike demand for the newest iPhone models. Look out for announcements regarding that at the company’s developer conference in June. Announcements there will have the potential to send shares much higher.
Magnificent 7 Stocks: Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock can move higher in 2024 due to AI. Shares currently trade for $180 and are pegged at a high of $230. In order for share prices to reach that point Amazon’s AI investments will need to show returns.
Amazon just invested an additional $2.75 billion into the AI startup Anthropic. That brings its total investment in the company to $4 billion, its largest investment in another company. Amazon is a minority owner in the upstart. Google also invested $2 billion in Anthropic. In turn, Anthropic will spend $4 billion on Amazon’s Cloud platform over the next 5 years.
Meanwhile, Amazon is also planning to spend $150 billion on data centers in the coming 10 years in order to better capture AI demand. It’s clear that Amazon is keen to maintain its dominant position within the cloud sector. Amazon’s investment in Server Farms is much greater than that of its rivals. That’s a great reason to believe Amazon will continue to thrive in the long run. Overall, 2024 is looking brighter as the company ramps up its AI intentions.
Meta Platforms (META)
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) became a dividend stock in 2024. The early February announcement was a boon to the company, spiking market capitalization by $205 billion.
The company delivered that news as part of an earnings report that was also very strong. The combination of those two pieces of good news were a blessing and a curse at the same time. The problem is that META shares will have trouble moving higher in the future. Analysts on Wall Street suggest that shares could move above $600 this year. They currently trade for $485.
Meta Platforms is fueled almost entirely by ad revenues. In order for it to move 20% higher the company’s investments in AI will have to filter through and increase ad revenue substantially. Further, in order for ad spend to rise firms will need to be confident of the direction of the economy. My best guess is that the number one factor there is expectations around rate cuts. Signs of earlier cuts will build very well for Meta.
Magnificent 7 Stocks: Microsoft (MSFT)
The best case scenario for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock in 2024 is that it rises from $420 to $600. In order to do so Microsoft will have to overcome some of its current challenges, especially as they relate to AI prompt outputs.
In recent weeks concerns over the safety of outputs from ChatGPT have emerged. A Microsoft engineer warned that co-pilot creates content that can influence political bias, fuel underage drinking, incite religious attacks, and further conspiracy theories. Microsoft is essentially countering that those so-called malevolent uses were never part of its original intent.
The company recently unveiled tools that are intended to prevent users from tricking AI chatbots into those malevolent uses.
Otherwise, Microsoft continues to do it very well on a fundamental basis. Its most recent earnings report shows impressive growth overall, at 18%. Microsoft’s cloud revenues are particularly strong, having grown by 24%. Microsoft will have to overcome those safety concerns mentioned above. However, the bigger hurdle will be continuing to prove that enterprises are willing to pay for its AI tools. That will be the primary determinant of Microsoft’s ability to break the $600 threshold in 2024.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Most investors are aware that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is projected to rise as high as $1,400 in 2024. That’s roughly 50% higher than its current $900 share price.
In order for Nvidia to do so it will have to continue to provide stellar results. Revenues grew by 126% in fiscal year 2024. That overall growth is impressive but it’s also the trajectory of growth which is noteworthy. In the first quarter Nvidia reported $7 billion in revenues. By Q4 that had more than tripled to $22 billion. Of that $22 billion, $18.4 billion was attributable to data center revenue.
The reason to believe that Nvidia will continue to provide stellar results lies in its H200 chips. Initial shipments of those chips are expected in the second quarter. As long as widespread AI adoption continues Nvidia should continue to thrive as well. It has few competitors that have shown any real ability to displace it.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is essentially going through a worst case scenario at the moment. The stock remains weak due to softness in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market. The company will announce delivery data which will confirm weakness. It’s not likely that Tesla shares will rebound anytime soon.
Tesla has offered pricing discounts in China to combat weak demand. Meanwhile, it has increased prices on the same vehicles in the United States and Europe. Tesla is again looking to increase margins that fell in 2023. However, analysts believe that those increased prices are not reflective of higher demand in American and European markets. Those analysts therefore believe that those price increases will not help to improve Tesla fundamentally.
U.S. deliveries are expected to increase by 4% in Q1. Deliveries in the U.S. make up roughly 40% of Tesla’s business. Meanwhile, in China, deliveries are expected to decline by 23%. The Chinese market makes up roughly 30% of volume. It’s clear that Tesla’s best case scenario is predicated upon a strengthening Chinese economy.
On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
