Advantages of the PEG Ratio over the P/E Ratio
The primary components of the Price-to-Earnings ratio are the company’s earnings and its stock’s market value. Earnings are critical to any company’s future prospects, but other factors are important, too.A company’s brand, its human capital, its expectations and the entry barriers it poses for competitors all affect a company’s earnings growth rate, which will ultimately affect its stock value.But to see the full picture, you need to look at the Price-to-Earnings ratio divided by annual EPS growth, which is called the PEG ratio. The growth rate describes either predicted or trailing growth over a one- to five-year span.Suppose a networking company has 20 percent annual net income growth and a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 50, while a brewing company has 10 percent earnings growth and a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 15. The networking company’s PEG ratio is 2.5, and the brewing company’s is 1.5.A lower PEG ratio means a better value in price and past or future growth. The networking company’s growth rate doesn’t justify its higher Price-to-Earnings ratio, so its stock appears overvalued.The PEG ratio provides more insight about a stock’s current value and future prospects.
Reviewed by David KindnessReviewed by David Kindness
The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is one of the most widely used metrics for investors and analysts to determine stock valuation. It shows whether a company’s stock price is overvalued or undervalued and can reveal how a stock’s valuation compares with its industry group or a benchmark like the S&P 500 Index. A good P/E for one group or sector could be a poor P/E for another sector, so comparisons should compare similar companies.
The P/E ratio helps investors determine the market value of a stock compared with the company’s earnings. It shows what the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its past or future earnings.
Key Takeaways
- The P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the market value price per share by the company’s earnings per share (EPS).
- A high P/E ratio can mean that a stock’s price is high relative to earnings and possibly overvalued.
- A low P/E ratio might indicate that the current stock price is low relative to earnings.
- An investor could look for stocks within an industry that is expected to benefit from the economic cycle and find companies with the lowest P/Es to determine which stocks are the most undervalued.
What Is a P/E Ratio?
Companies that grow faster than average, such as technology companies, typically have higher P/Es. A higher P/E ratio shows that investors are willing to pay a higher share price now due to growth expectations in the future. The median P/E for the S&P 500 was 15.00 as of June 2024.
Investors use the P/E ratio to determine not only a stock’s market value but also its future earnings growth. If a company’s earnings are expected to rise, investors might expect the company to increase its dividends as a result. Higher earnings and rising dividends typically lead to a higher stock price.
Formula and Calculation of the P/E Ratio
The P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the stock’s current price by its latest earnings per share: Current price / most recent earnings per share = P/E ratio.
Earnings per share (EPS) is the amount of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of a company’s common stock. It serves as an indicator of the company’s financial health. Earnings per share is the portion of a company’s net income that would be earned per share if all profits were paid out to its shareholders. EPS is typically used by analysts and traders to establish the financial strength of a company. EPS provides the “E” or earnings portion of the P/E valuation ratio.
Analyzing P/E Ratios
A stock should be compared with other stocks in its sector or industry group to determine whether it’s overvalued or undervalued. Similar companies should be compared to each other, like insurance to insurance or oil producer to oil producer.
An industry group will benefit during a particular phase of the business cycle in most cases, so many professional investors will concentrate on an industry group when their turn in the cycle is up. Remember that the P/E is a measure of expected earnings. Inflation tends to rise as economies mature. The Federal Reserve increases interest rates as a result of slowing the economy and taming inflation to prevent a rapid rise in prices.
Certain industries do well in this environment. Banks earn more income as interest rates rise because they can charge higher rates on their credit products, such as credit cards and mortgages. Basic materials and energy companies also receive a boost in earnings from inflation because they can charge higher prices for the commodities they harvest.
Interest rates will typically be low and banks tend to earn less revenue toward the end of an economic recession. But consumer cyclical stocks often have higher earnings because consumers may be more willing to purchase on credit when rates are low.
Limitations to the P/E Ratio
The first part of the P/E equation or price is straightforward because the current market price of a stock is easily obtained, but determining an appropriate earnings number can be more difficult. Investors must determine how to define earnings and the factors that impact earnings. There are some limitations to the P/E ratio as a result as certain factors impact the P/E of a company.
Volatile Market Prices
Volatile market prices can throw off the P/E ratio, but this more commonly happens in the short term.
Earnings Makeup of a Company
The earnings makeup of a company is often difficult to determine. The P/E is typically calculated by measuring historical earnings or trailing earnings, but historical earnings aren’t of much use to investors because they reveal little about future earnings.
Note
Investors are most interested in determining future earnings.
Forward earnings or future earnings are based on the opinions of Wall Street analysts, and they can be overly optimistic in their assumptions during periods of economic expansion. They can be overly pessimistic during times of economic contraction.
One-time adjustments such as the sale of a subsidiary could inflate earnings in the short term. This complicates the predictions of future earnings because the influx of cash from the sale wouldn’t be a sustainable contributor to earnings in the long term. Forward earnings can be useful, but they’re prone to inaccuracies.
Earnings Growth
Earnings growth isn’t included in the P/E ratio. The biggest limitation of the P/E ratio is that it tells investors little about the company’s EPS growth prospects. An investor might be comfortable buying in at a high P/E ratio, expecting earnings growth to bring the P/E back down to a lower level if the company is growing quickly. But they might look elsewhere for a stock with a lower P/E if earnings aren’t growing quickly enough.
It can be difficult to tell if a high P/E multiple is the result of expected growth or if the stock is simply overvalued.
PEG Ratio
A P/E ratio doesn’t always show whether the P/E is appropriate for a company’s forecasted growth rate even when it’s calculated using a forward earnings estimate. Investors turn to another ratio known as the price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio to address this limitation.
Note
The PEG ratio measures the relationship between the price/earnings ratio and earnings growth to provide investors with a more complete story than the P/E alone.
The PEG ratio allows investors to calculate whether a stock’s price is overvalued or undervalued by analyzing both today’s earnings and the expected growth rate for the company in the future.
Example of a PEG Ratio
An advantage of using the PEG ratio is that you can compare the relative valuations of different industries that may have very different prevailing P/E ratios. This facilitates the comparison of different industries that each tends to have its own historical P/E range.
Here’s a comparison of the relative valuation of a biotech stock and an integrated oil company.
| Biotech Stock ABC | Oil Stock XYZ | |
| Current P/E | 35 times earnings | 16 times earnings |
| Five-year projected growth rate | 25% | 15% |
| PEG | 35/25, or 1.40 | 16/15, or 1.07 |
These two fictional companies have very different valuations and growth rates, but the PEG ratio gives an apples-to-apples comparison of the relative valuations. The PEG ratio of the S&P 500 would be 16 / 12 = 1.33 if the S&P 500 had a current P/E ratio of 16 times trailing earnings and if the average analyst estimate for future earnings growth in the S&P 500 is 12% over the next five years.
What Does It Mean When a Company Has a High P/E Ratio?
A company with a current P/E ratio of 25, which is above the S&P average, trades at 25 times its earnings. The high multiple indicates that investors expect higher growth from the company compared with the overall market. A high P/E does not necessarily mean a stock is overvalued. Any P/E ratio should be considered against the backdrop of the P/E for the company’s industry.
What Is a Sector?
A sector is a general segment of the economy that contains similar industries. Sectors are made up of industry groups, and industry groups are made up of stocks with similar businesses such as banking or financial services.
What Is a Relative Valuation?
A relative valuation is a mathematical way of determining whether a specific stock or a broad industry is more or less expensive than a broad market index such as the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq.
The Bottom Line
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is one of the most common ratios that investors use to determine if a company’s stock price is properly valued relative to its earnings. The P/E ratio is popular and easy to calculate, but it has shortcomings that investors should consider when using it to determine a stock’s valuation.
The P/E ratio doesn’t factor in future earnings growth, so the PEG ratio provides more insight into a stock’s valuation. The PEG is a valuable tool for investors in calculating a stock’s future prospects because it provides a forward-looking perspective. However, no single ratio can tell investors all they need to know about a stock. It’s important to use a variety of ratios to arrive at a complete picture of a company’s financial health and stock valuation.
Every investor wants an edge in predicting a company’s future, but a company’s earnings guidance statements may not be a reliable source.
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