Hello, Reader.
Think back to January 2000.
The internet was the next big thing, a recession was a year away, and the dot-com bubble was inflating. Wide-leg jeans were in fashion.
This, perhaps, sounds a bit like today.
But back over 20 years ago, investors knew that the internet would change the world. So, they bid up the market caps of the Top 5 tech stocks to record heights…
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) to $600 billion
- Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) to $316 billion
- Oracle Corp. (ORCL) to $308 billion
- Intel Corp. (INTC) to $275 billion
- IBM Corp. (IBM) to $188 billion
All of this felt perfectly reasonable at the time.
These five companies represented the top software, hardware, and infrastructure firms of the day. They were clearly the key drivers of the Internet Age, and investors were happy to buy these stocks, no matter the price.
However, these companies couldn’t stay at those lofty valuations, and all but IBM declined over the next decade. In fact, Cisco and Intel still trade below their 2000 peaks.
The truth is that high share prices have a habit of robbing future investors of returns. If a stock rises 10% today, that usually means 10% less upside is available for tomorrow. And even the highest-growth companies can take decades to “fill out” inflated market valuations… if they ever do at all.
The opposite is also true. Of the 361 S&P 500 firms that made it through the 2000s without merging or going bankrupt, the five top-performing of that decade were…
- A near-bankrupt computer maker: Apple Inc. (AAPL) +720%
- A construction company: McDermott International Ltd. (MDR) +695%
- A fossil fuel company: Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) +652%
- A railway: Kansas City Southern (KSU): +609%
- And an oil driller: APA Corp. (APA) +545%
With the exception of Apple, the top performers had almost nothing to do with the internet.
Instead, these were high-performing companies that simply sold off during the dot-com boom because investors needed the cash to bid up pricey tech stocks. Twenty-nine of the top 30 performers of the 2000s tracked by Refinitiv, a provider of financial market data, were non-tech firms.
Just as the internet boom created surprising winners, so too will the Road to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
AGI is when AI becomes capable of “generalized” cognitive abilities, allowing it to achieve superhuman cognition.
To illustrate further, let’s consider a separate industry where the need for AI is relatively easy to picture: self-driving vehicles.
The Real Winners of the Road to AGI
At first glance, observers might believe that the Road to AGI involves winners, automakers like General Motors Co. (GM), and losers, rideshare firms like Uber Technology Inc. (UBER).
However, a closer look at the industry reveals the opposite might be true once autonomous vehicles (AVs) truly emerge. Rideshare firms could emerge as winners, while automakers become the losers.
Here’s why…
Automakers have long known that cars are parked roughly 95% of the time. Most vehicles are needed on demand, and we simply leave them in driveways or parking lots because they can’t move themselves.
But what if they could?
A single vehicle could theoretically drop one person off on a morning commute, swing back home to take another family member to buy groceries, then bring another to daycare… and so on. There would suddenly be no need to have 1.8 cars per household when you can share a single vehicle with multiple family members or neighbors.
Consultancy Oliver Wyman estimates that driverless vehicles could reduce net car demand by as much as 15% by 2035, even if the number of people using cars go up. It’s no wonder why GM is willing to rush the development of its self-driving vehicles. Losing out on the self-driving revolution would be disastrous for carmakers, given the high fixed costs of production.
Meanwhile, ridesharing company Uber sold its self-driving unit in 2020 because it realized it’s mostly immune from getting replaced by autonomous vehicles. Instead, the rideshare firm stands to benefit from AGI because it can quickly become a marketplace for these services. Why buy a Tesla Robotaxi when Uber can send you the nearest car for the cheapest price?
So, if rideshare companies like Uber play their cards right, they would be the ones that benefit most on the Road to AGI, rather than the automakers that finally perfect autonomous driving.
During my special event next Thursday, The Road to AGI Summit (join me by going here), I’ll share my No. 1 stock idea for investing in AGI. It’s a fast-growing startup with virtually limitless potential on the Road to AGI. Additionally, I’ll be delivering my “futureproof” blueprint to prepare for this rapidly evolving landscape.
Because AGI is reaching a point of no return for developing AI technology, this event is crucial for anyone looking to stay ahead and capitalize on this coming technological revolution.
I’ll provide all the details during my The Road to AGI Summit on Thursday, August 22, at 1 p.m. Eastern time.
Click here to reserve your seat.
Regards,
Eric Fry
