Tonight, Americans across the country will be glued to their screens, watching Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump duke it out in their first debate.
That’s to be expected. This is a divisive and important presidential election. Current polls and betting markets show the outcome is basically a coin flip at the moment. But tonight’s debate could change all that.
Indeed, Americans should be watching the upcoming presidential debate.
But don’t expect to uncover any stock market insights. You won’t find any – or any good ones, at least.
In fact, here’s a funny truth: The stock market doesn’t really care who is president.
Stocks Will Rise, No Matter the President
Republican, Democrat, progressive, conservative – U.S. presidents’ political views haven’t seemed to matter to stocks since the 1980s.
Stocks just keep going up.
We’re about three years and eight months into President Joe Biden’s presidency. In that time, the S&P 500 has risen by about 50%.
Guess how much the S&P rose in the first three years and eight months of Donald Trump’s presidency; about 50%.
Coincidence? Maybe not.
Because in the first three years and eight months of Barack Obama’s time in office, the S&P 500 rose… wait for it… about 50%.
And, indeed, in the first three years and eight months of Bill Clinton’s presidency, the S&P 500 rose – you guessed it – about 50%.
Clearly, there’s a pattern here.
Stocks tend to rise about 50% in the first three years and eight months of any presidency – regardless of political affiliation.
So, like many Americans, I’ll be watching tonight’s presidential debate. But I won’t be watching it to determine where stocks will go over the next four years.
Instead, I’ll be watching a different event for that.
The Final Word on the Imminent Market Reversal
See; while Americans are hyper-focused on the upcoming presidential debate, there is actually another important event coming down the pike. And it’s very likely to shock markets in a big way.
It has happened six times in the last 35 years. Three times, it sparked a double-digit decline in stocks. The other three times, it sparked a double-digit rally in stocks.
And the present macroeconomic dynamics hold very strong parallels to the three instances this event sparked a double-digit rally.
That’s why we think that next week could be the start of a huge reversal in the stock market – one in which stocks absolutely soar into the end of the year.
And it has almost nothing to do with the presidential debate.
So, if you want to be informed, watch tonight’s debate. And if you’re free tomorrow night, Sept. 11 at 8 p.m. EST… I’m hosting a strategy session to help folks prepare for next week’s big reversal. I highly suggest you join!
What’s about to unfurl tends to really move markets, and now is the time to prepare.
Click here to reserve your seat now.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
P.S. You can stay up to speed with Luke’s latest market analysis by reading our Daily Notes! Check out the latest issue on your Innovation Investor or Early Stage Investor subscriber site.
