Dividend Stocks

87% Chance of a Kamala Win? Here’s How to Prepare…

Betting markets favor a Donald Trump win…

The RealClearPolitics Betting Average tracks odds from sportsbooks and prediction markets.

It’s a snapshot of how bettors are viewing the outcome of the election.

And it gives Trump a 64% chance of winning the White House.

That sounds about right.

Despite what his detractors say, he’s now more popular than ever among voters. And recent polling shows him making gains nationally and in key swing states.

But I’ve been a professional investor for more than 40 years. And I can’t ignore what stock market history says about the prospect of a shock win for Kamala Harris.

This from Kiplinger

In the 23 presidential elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by [stock market] gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In eight of nine elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing.

That’s an 87% accuracy rate.

The benchmark U.S. stock market index, the S&P 500, is up about 7% since the start of July. The Dow and the Nasdaq are also showing gains over that time.

If history is any guide, Harris, not Trump, is likely to be the next president of the United States.

And that’s not the only indicator pointing to a Harris win.

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