In Ancient Greece, northern tribes often journeyed to the Oracle of Dodona, a sacred sanctuary where priests and priestesses interpreted the rustling of oak leaves, the behavior of birds, and sounds from bronze cauldrons as messages from the god Zeus.
The oracle stood as a beacon of accuracy and wisdom, attracting those seeking guidance – from contemplating rulers and generals to ordinary travelers hoping to understand their fate.
Today, the art of prediction is still practiced, although it has evolved.
Modern militaries churn through massive amounts of satellite information and real-world data with human analysts and AI. Entire battles can be simulated by computer.
Companies use predictive models to forecast demand… weather forecasters use simulations to determine the chance of rain…
…and savvy investors often use these same tools to figure out what comes next in the market.
Investors like Tom Yeung, who joins me once a week here at Smart Money to keep you updated about markets, investing, and everything in between.
Tom’s market analysis is remarkable. He’s essentially practicing a modern form of auspicy, or the ancient art of divining future events.
He has done this most recently by analyzing President-Elect Donald Trump’s current actions and their future effects on the stock market’s potential trajectory.
While he’s no divine profit, Tom has a unique approach to predicting market signals, using social media and political developments as his bronze cauldrons and rustling leaves.
In today’s Smart Money, I want to share some of Tom’s recent auspicious insights… including why the key to investing in politically sensitive stocks over the next four years will be understanding that Trump needs to be taken seriously, but not literally.
Here’s what he has to say…
From the Smart Money “Oracle”
In November 2016, Google search terms for “move to Canada” spiked 20-fold.
Who could blame the millions of worried Americans? The incoming president was a polarizing figure that had campaigned on issues like repealing the Affordable Care Act, eliminating gun-free zones at schools, ending birthright citizenship, and so on.
Half the country was terrified.
But what came next over the following four years was the same type of prioritization that every American president faces in office. Many campaign promises were kept, while others were watered down or abandoned entirely.
It turned out that many of Donald Trump’s promises were about outlining his world views, rather than specific blueprints to implement.
A promise to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% was only partially fulfilled. So were goals of raising GDP growth to 4%, saving the coal industry, and so on. Wilder ambitions of “eliminating wasteful spending in every department” went nowhere.
Fast-forward to today, and this explains why the betting market’s calling Trump’s “bluff” on imposing 20% across-the-board tariffs.
Polymarket, a betting site that correctly predicted Trump’s recent election victory, gives a 38% chance of large tariffs being implemented in his first six months and only a 29% chance he will follow through with a recent threat to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Instead, people seem to believe Trump is threatening tariffs as a negotiating tool.
Countries like China will see some increase in tariffs, especially if their leaders fail to offer something in return. But many other regions will see room to negotiate lower tariffs (or none at all) in exchange for something else. It’s more than likely that Trump will come to an agreement with Canada to keep the oil and gas taps open. So, we see no reason to panic-sell commodity-producing stocks that export to the United States.
Now,the picture is a little more muddled with healthcare stocks.
Trump’s selection of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the next head of Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) injects enormous uncertainty into the industry. While his well-known vaccine skepticism raises concerns for vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer Inc. (PFE), there are healthcare stocks that remain on the “right” side of Trump’s mandate. (You can learn more about Eric’s healthcare stock recommendations at Fry’s Investment Report.)
In fact, many of Trump’s goals for his second presidency will be good for pharma companies with strong pipelines. This includes repealing the Medicare negotiation provision of the Inflation Reduction Act, reducing Federal Trade Commission oversight of mergers and acquisitions among corporations, lowering corporate taxes, and more.
Our investment strategy continues to focus on identifying stocks with attractive valuations, while managing potential political volatility.
A New Stock Prediction Tool
So, just like the Oracle of Dodona, Tom too makes stock market predictions by interpreting signs from the natural world (in this case, Trump’s current actions).
However, he isn’t the only auspice here at InvestorPlace.
In fact, my colleague Luke Lango has a new quant system that does the same thing. His new tool – called Auspex – scans over 10,000 stocks to find the ones that meet his strict criteria for fundamental, technical, and sentiment strength. It then divines the immediate future of each stock to tell you which ones are the best over the best month.
And the Auspex screener can get you in front of big winners roughly every 30 days.
Over a 5-year period from September 2019 to September 2024, Luke’s historical analysis shows the Auspex portfolio, rebalanced monthly, would have returned 1,0534%
The S&P 500 only put up 109% over the same 5-year period. So, we’re talking about an outperformance of the market by 9X.
And it has beaten the market every single month since Luke started live testing it in July with a small group of his subscribers.
It requires just about 10 minutes of work a month, and exposure to only 10 or so equities at a time.
On Wednesday, December 11, at 1 p.m. Eastern time, he’ll reveal this new screener to a wider audience during his free The Auspex Anomaly Event next Wednesday. Luke will also reveal the name and ticker symbol of a stock he used Auspex to uncover during this free broadcast.
It’s an event that you won’t want to miss. So, be sure to click here to reserve your spot.
Regards,
Eric Fry
