In a fiercely competitive arena, Nio (NYSE:NIO) has actually been a pick of mine in the past. The company’s growth potential, in the highly coveted Chinese EV market, remains compelling for long-term investors. There are various demographic and secular tailwinds supporting the company, though Chinese growth concerns have eaten into much of that argument.
Additionally, I’ve grown more bullish on the company’s key competitors, BYD Co. (OTCMKTS:BYDDF) and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI), on a relative basis. BYD’s Q4 2023 sales of 526,409 EVs surpassed Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) numbers, also becoming China’s leading car brand, outpacing Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY). Nio certainly faces a number of competitive challenges amidst dominant market players.
While Nio’s monthly delivery figures may initially impress, closer examination reveals less-than-stellar EV sales. My NIO stock forecast is conservative, as I think other major players may simply be better bets in this environment. A stock’s decline doesn’t guarantee better returns over time, sometimes companies like Nio can continue to see stagnation, particularly when their previous run-up was so incredibly volatile.
Wall Street Price Targets
Over the past year, the electric vehicle (EV) industry faced challenges like demand drops, prompting price cuts and hybrid model shifts. While NIO stock has seen a slight bump of late, it’s clear that the longer-term trend around this stock has been generally negative.
Despite recent positive developments, analysts’ optimism toward Nio isn’t surprising. Analyst forecasts average upside of more than 80% to $10.55 within a year. However, varied opinions on the stock remain, with 6 buy ratings and 4 holds. Additionally, all 10 analysts predict an upside from Nio’s most recent price of $5.70 per share, with diverse targets ranging from $8.00 to $18.70.
Although analysts show optimism, Nio’s stock sees green only on the one-week chart, up 4.68%. Over the past month and the past year, it’s been down big. I’m not sure this trend will reverse anytime soon.
The Problem with NIO Stock
Nio’s dynamic strategy contrasts with mixed operational outcomes. The company’s third-quarter unaudited results showed a 47% increase in vehicle sales to 17.41 billion RMB ($2.38 billion), amidst industry price battles.
Yet, the company faced a 25% rise in operating losses to $663.9 million compared to the previous year. Despite typical losses during growth phases, Nio’s increasing losses imply an ongoing early-stage business model development, heightening risk.
In the upcoming years, investors needed to monitor equity dilution, where a company issues more shares for financing. Although this can aid survival, it might lead to underperformance by diminishing current shareholders’ future earnings claims.
Avoid Nio Right Now
Nio’s price-to-sales ratio — at less than 2x — is notably lower than U.S. rivals like Tesla (8.6x) and Rivian (4.7x). That may certainly be compelling for some growth-at-a-reasonable-price investors, as a relative value trade.
However, it’s my view that geopolitical risks out of China and a weaker-than-expected growth outlook over the next year makes this stock too risky to own here. While Nio’s low price may seem attractive, uncertainty persists, warranting a cautious approach until further data emerges.
On the date of publication, Chris MacDonald did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
